Turkey’s hotly contested election for president is likely to go to a second round because President Recep Tayyip Erdogan didn’t get 50% of the votes cast to extend his 20-year rule for sure.

The high-stakes election will decide the fate of a key NATO partner and regional power broker at a time when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has thrown much of the world into chaos.

As Erdogan’s early lead disappeared, the mood at the Istanbul offices of his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) became darker.

After 97.95% of the votes were counted, the state-run Anadolu news agency said Erdogan had 49.34% of the votes, while his main opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, had 44.99%. This meant that neither Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu could claim a clear victory.

Sinan Ogan, the third nominee, got 5.28 percent of the vote, according to Anadolu. This makes it possible that he could be the deciding vote in a runoff. He wrote on Twitter that a second vote is “quite possible,” and that “Turkish nationalists and Ataturkists are in a key position for this election.”

Kilicdaroglu was happy about the idea of a second vote and said that his party would win.

“If our country says “round two,” we’re happy to do it. We will win this race in the second round without a doubt. “Everyone will see that,” he said about the May 28 rematch.

Erdogan, the strongman leader of Turkey, will face his biggest test yet on Sunday’s race. He has been facing economic problems and criticism about how the February 6 earthquake has affected Turkey.

For the first time, Turkey’s divided opposition came together behind a single candidate, Kilicdaroglu, who represents a coalition of six opposition groups.

Analysts said before the vote that Erdogan would not give up power without a fight, and that even if Kilicdaroglu got ahead, the numbers could still be questioned.

A lot of people around the world, especially in Moscow and Europe, are paying close attention to how the vote turns out.

Turkey is a member of NATO and has the second-largest army in the group. In recent years, Turkey has grown closer to Russia. In 2019, it went against the US by buying weapons from the country.

More recently, Erdogan has raised eyebrows in the West by continuing to keep close links with Russia while it keeps attacking Ukraine. He has also slowed down NATO’s plans to grow by stopping Finland and Sweden from joining.

Both competitors are sure

Erdogan was sure early on that he would get enough votes to win the race.

He told fans at the headquarters of the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party in Ankara, “We think we will finish this round with more than 50% of the votes.”

Kilicdaroglu had previously said that Erdogan’s AK Party was asking for recounts and stalling results in places where the opposition had a lot of support, such as Ankara and Istanbul.

Erdogan heading for a runoff in Turkey’s knife-edge elections
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People wait in line in front of a voting place in Istanbul, Turkey. May 14, 2023. – Hannah McKay/Reuters

Polls open in Turkey’s fiercely fought elections that could unseat Erdogan
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At a voting station in Istanbul, people who work for the election prepare the ballots. – Francisco Seco/AP

Korhan Futaci, 46, told CNN from a voting place in Istanbul’s Beyogly neighborhood, “My vote is for freedom. My vote is for our kids’ future. I’m hopeful.”

Yeliz Sahin, 46, whose brother and son died in the earthquake, said, “It’s a historical time that we’ve been waiting for for 20 years. This system as a whole needs to be changed.”

Eren Uzmele, 19, who was voting for the first time, said, “The future of the country is in our hands.” It’s up to the young people.”

Kilicdaroglu, a 74-year-old former bureaucrat with a mild personality, has promised to fix Turkey’s failing economy and bring back democratic institutions that were hurt by Erdogan’s rise to power.

Votes were cast for the top candidates

Erdogan told reporters after voting in Istanbul, “We pray to God for a better future for our country, our nation, and Turkish democracy.”

Kilicdaroglu said after voting in Ankara, “We all missed freedom, being together, and embracing each other so much. From now on, I hope you’ll be able to see that spring will always come to this country.”

Erdogan ended his election campaign on Saturday night by praying at Hagia Sophia, an important historical spot in Istanbul that is also a mosque. Kilicdaroglu, on the other hand, went to Mustafa Kemal Ataturk’s grave. Ataturk was the founder of modern Turkey and a strong secularist.

Erdogan has been talking about how good his long time in power has been. He is running for re-election on a platform of security, an independent foreign policy, and continuing to build up Turkey’s defense industry. Recently, he raised government workers’ pay by 45% and dropped the age at which they could retire.

In the last two years, Turkey’s currency has dropped and prices have gone up. This has caused a crisis in the cost of living, which has hurt Erdogan’s support among conservatives and middle class people.

When a powerful earthquake hit southeast Turkey on February 6 and destroyed big parts of the area, Erdogan had to deal with the political aftershocks. His critics scolded him for a bad rescue effort and lax building controls that his ruling Justice and Development (AK) party oversaw for 20 years.

Polls open in Turkey’s fiercely fought elections that could unseat Erdogan
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A look at blank ballots at a voting place in the city of Ankara. – Yves Herman/Reuters

Polls open in Turkey’s fiercely fought elections that could unseat Erdogan
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At a voting place in Istanbul, a woman casts her vote. – Francisco Seco/AP

In the weeks after the earthquake, the government arrested dozens of workers, construction inspectors, and project managers for breaking building rules. Critics said the move was a way to find someone to blame.

The government has also said they are sorry for “mistakes” that were made right after the accident.

Over 51,000 people died in Turkey and Syria, which is close by. There are still thousands of people who haven’t been found, and unidentified graves are all over the southeastern Turkish countryside.

On Thursday, a small candidate, Muharrem Ince, dropped out of the race at the last minute. This helped Kilicdaroglu even more. Ince didn’t do well in polls, but some people in the opposition worried that he would split the vote against Erdogan.

Every five years, Turkey has elections. The Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah said on Wednesday that the country’s deputy foreign minister said that more than 1.8 million people who live abroad already voted on April 17. Over 65 million Turks are allowed to vote.

Last month, the head of the Supreme Election Council (YSK), Ahmet Yener, said that at least 1 million people who lived in areas affected by the earthquake will not be able to vote this year because they had to move.

This story was helped by Nadeen Ebrahim in Abu Dhabi.

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