The National Safety Council (NSC) says that 408 people could die on U.S. roads between Christmas and New Year’s Day. Families all over the United States often take trips during the holidays. Many people choose to travel by car, which has the most deaths per passenger mile of any major form of motorised transportation. Holidays are also often a time to celebrate by drinking alcohol, which is a major cause of car accidents.
The first of January is New Year’s Day. Depending on what day of the week New Year’s Day is, the holiday can last anywhere from 1.25 to 4.25 days. In 2023, New Year’s Day will be on a Sunday, so the holiday will last from 6 p.m. on Friday, December 30, 2022, to 11:59 p.m. on Monday, January 2, 2023.
On the Holiday Introduction page, you can find a list of holiday times and what they mean.
Estimates from the National Safety Council
Any estimate comes with a certain amount of uncertainty. With 90% certainty, we can say that between 333 and 490 people will die in car accidents this holiday. This chart compares the NSC’s estimates of the number of deaths on New Year’s Day with the actual number of deaths. Because people’s travel habits changed during the COVID-19 pandemic, the confidence intervals for 2021 and 2022 are wider than they were in previous years. This means that the estimates for those years are less accurate.
Injuries
A medically consulted injury is one that was bad enough to require the help of a doctor. Based on the current medically consulted injury to death ratio of 114:1, rounded to the nearest hundred, the number of non-fatal medically consulted injuries that will result from crashes over the holidays is estimated to be 46,500, with a 90% confidence interval of 37,900 to 55,900.
Seat belts have saved lives
Studies show that front-seat passenger car occupants are 45% less likely to die if they wear their seat belts (see note below for more details). If everyone in a car wears a seat belt over the New Year’s holiday, an estimated 162 lives could be saved. If everyone wears a seat belt, an extra 94 lives could be saved.
Driving While Drunk
In 2020, 30% of all traffic deaths in the United States were caused by people who were driving drunk (with a blood alcohol level of 0.08 g/dL or higher). During the holiday period around New Year’s Day in 2020 (the most recent year for which data is available), 49% of deaths involved a driver who had been drinking. This graph shows how the number of deaths caused by drunk drivers has changed over time.
Note: At least 0.08 grammes per deciliter (g/dL) of blood alcohol was found in the drivers or motorcyclists involved in the crash. The holiday periods used to figure out the percentages match the NHTSA’s definitions of holiday periods, which add a quarter day to the periods used by the NSC to figure out the percentages.
Even though the risk of a fatal injury is cut by 50% for people in light trucks who wear seat belts, the lower number for people in passenger cars is used in these calculations because it is a safer estimate. The most recent information from FARS shows that 48.6% of people who were killed in passenger cars and light trucks were wearing their seat belts.
