Road to Euro 2024: Anticipating the Drama on Matchday 9

As we head into the last international break of the year, we only know about nine of the 24 teams that will be competing in the 2024 European Championship.

By the end of November, people from 21 different countries will be able to book their trips to Germany. The UEFA, which is in charge of football in Europe, thinks it is smart enough to wait to choose the final three teams until the end of the UEFA Nations League playoffs in March. This is a full year after the qualification process began.

Here’s what could happen in the next-to-last round of playoff games.

Matchday 9 forecasts for Euro 2024 qualifying

Spain and Scotland will both be at Euro 2024. The top two teams in Group A have the same number of points and have never lost to each other. If both teams win their remaining games, the race for first place and a better seed in next summer’s playoffs will come down to goal difference.

Spain’s matchup against Cyprus is much easier because they have never lost there, while Scotland’s matchup against Georgia is against a country that has only lost one home game in the last two years.

Sweden is already out of the tournament, so their only goal when they make the long trip to Baku on Thursday is to defend their honor. Their hosts, Azerbaijan, still has a chance to get into the playoffs by a back way. So does Estonia. Austria, led by Ralf Rangnick, will finish their campaign in Tallinn. Next summer, they will cross the border into Germany and could still beat Belgium to win Group F.

Group G is a lot more open. All three of Hungary, Serbia, and Montenegro have the chance to make it to the upcoming finals or not. Hungary was a surprise at the last Euros, and all they need is a tie at home against Bulgaria on Thursday to secure their spot. Not only do Montenegro need to beat Lithuania, they also need Bulgaria to help them out when they play Serbia in the next round of games.

Portugal is already in first place with a perfect record, so their trip to Liechtenstein may not mean much, but Cristiano Ronaldo isn’t one to use the phrase “dead rubber.” A rising Luxembourg team still wants to join Portugal in the top two, but they would have to beat Bosnia and Herzegovina and hope that Iceland beats Slovakia, which is currently in second place in Group J.

England made it to their fourth straight major event with two games to spare, thanks to Gareth Southgate. The Three Lions play Malta at home on Friday, and one of the few things that could go wrong is their perfect qualification record under Southgate.

England has only lost one match since the former center-back took over from Sam Allardyce, a 2-1 loss to the Czech Republic in October 2019. England hasn’t lost a qualification game at home since November 2007, when Steve McClaren was widely called “the Wally with the Brolly” after a wet 3-2 loss to Croatia.

Italy’s game against their “bogey team,” North Macedonia, has a lot more at stake than England’s game. The Azzurri could lose again to the team that kept them out of the last World Cup, but that would put even more pressure on their last game against Ukraine next week. Italy only needs one more point to finish second in Group C, behind England. If they win in Rome, that will happen.

The Faroe Islands are the only country in Group E that can’t go straight to the finals, but they could still make it through the playoffs. On Friday, Moldova will host the leaders of Albania, and the Czech Republic will go to the city of Poland for a very important match.

This week, Northern Ireland makes the short trip to Finland to see off their already hopeless qualification quest. Kazakhstan plays San Marino, the only team in Group H below Michael O’Neill’s team. In Copenhagen, Denmark and Slovenia, the top two teams, play each other.

There are two games in Group B that are almost certain to have clear winners. France, who won the World Cup, plays Gibraltar in a pointless and goalless match that is the most lopsided of the whole qualification process. However, it may be even more likely that the Netherlands beat the Republic of Ireland on Saturday.

Ireland is counting on a spot in the playoffs to get to Germany since they can’t directly qualify. But for the playoffs to happen, they need as many teams above them in the Nations League rankings to immediately go to the Euros as possible. It’s possible that the Dutch would make it harder for Ireland to get a knockout match if they didn’t make it through straight qualification. Ronald Koeman’s team will be in second place, behind France and ahead of Greece, if they win in Amsterdam on Saturday.

Both Wales and Croatia want to finish second in Group D, just behind Turkey. The team led by Rob Page is tied with the team that won third place in the World Cup in terms of points. On Saturday, they will travel to Armenia. Croatia plays Latvia, which is at the bottom of the table. They need the Welsh to make a mistake because Wales has a worse record against Croatia.

Even though there has been trouble off the field, Israel is sure of at least a playoff spot before Romania comes to town this weekend. Switzerland and Kosovo both have a chance to go straight to the next round, while Belarus and Andorra play a dead match at the bottom of Group I.