The race for the White House has begun. The starting gun has been fired. But in Iowa, where the first Republican caucuses in the country will be held in just one year, the landscape is cold, snowy, and very quiet.
Art Cullen, editor of the Storm Lake Times in Iowa, said, “These people must be watching Trump’s poll numbers, which is why there’s a delay.” “Trump and [Florida Governor Ron] DeSantis are fighting in the ring. Others are watching to see if someone gets hit and leaves an opening for them.”
At the same point in 2019, at least a dozen Democratic presidential candidates had already been to Iowa or said they were going there soon. “We got one every other week,” Cullen said, adding that the first big candidate forum was in March.
But of the possible Republican candidates for 2024, only Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas, has been there so far this year. Tim Scott, a senator from South Carolina, and Kari Lake, a former candidate for governor of Arizona who is seen as a possible running mate for Trump, are both planning to visit later this month.
Trump is the only candidate who has said they are running so far. He hasn’t been to Iowa yet, but his campaign is finally picking up speed. Last weekend, the former US president spoke to small groups of Republicans in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He promised to “finish the unfinished business of making America great again.” He is making policy statements, building infrastructure, and announcing endorsements that say, “Catch me if you can.”
It is a surprising conventional move from one of the most unusual candidates. The 76-year-old was removed from office twice, blamed for the deaths of thousands of people during the coronavirus pandemic, and pushed for a violent coup on January 6, 2021. Even though he is under investigation for multiple crimes, he acts as if he is still in office and bets that voters will not remember.
He is also throwing down the gauntlet and daring anyone who wants to challenge him to act first. Even though there are signs that some people are getting ready to fight him, no one has yet launched a full-frontal attack on Trump or Trumpism. It seems that they are afraid of getting Trump’s anger and turning off his supporters.
Bill Whalen, who used to work as a media consultant for politicians like former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, said, “I don’t think anyone wants to run and be seen as the heel, the bad guy wrestler whose only goal is to attack Donald Trump. It’s not a good way to get what you want, and Trump will fight back. The old saying about wrestling with a pig in the mud is, “You get dirty, and the pig enjoys it more than you do.”
This week, it came out that Nikki Haley, 51, who was governor of South Carolina before becoming Trump’s ambassador to the UN, plans to announce her candidature on February 15 in Charleston. Haley told the Associated Press in 2021 that she “would not run if President Trump ran,” but she has since changed her mind and told Fox News that she could be part of a “new generational change.”
Last Saturday, Trump was in South Carolina. He told WIS-TV that Haley had called him a few days before to ask what he thought. “She said she’d never run against me because she thought I was the best president, but people change their minds and their hearts,” he said. “So I told them, ‘If your heart tells you to do it, go do it.'”
Trump seems more threatened by DeSantis and is less nice to him. DeSantis was re-elected easily in Florida and is ahead of Trump in some polls. Trump has called DeSantis “Ron DeSanctimonious” and said that if DeSantis ran for president in 2024, it would be “a great act of disloyalty.” Trump has helped DeSantis rise to power in the past.
But so far, even DeSantis, who isn’t likely to run until the Florida legislature ends in the spring, has been careful. He didn’t directly answer Trump’s attack, but he did draw a contrast between his own success and Trump’s failure at the polls in 2020: “Not only did we win re-election, but we won with the most votes of any Republican candidate for governor in the history of Florida.”
Other possible candidates, like Trump’s former vice president Mike Pence and his former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, have also been careful about criticizing their former boss, taking the occasional jab while also praising his administration and their roles in it. Taking on Trump directly is a huge political risk, as Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio found out in 2016 when they were called names, insulted, and put down.
John Zogby, an author and pollster, said, “It seems like alienating Donald Trump is a very thankless job. Trump comes down from the sky with a hammer, an anvil, and a safe. Even though it’s clear that Trump has lost a lot of his magic, he can still cause a lot of damage. He still has his own forum and his own loyal followers, and he can still take in all the bad energy. He blocks whether Trump wins or loses.”
Even so, Trump could soon have company on the campaign trail. This is because primaries often attract long-shot candidates who would be happy with a book deal, radio show, job as a TV pundit, or a spot as the winner’s running mate as a consolation prize.
Greg Abbott of Texas, Brian Kemp of Georgia, Kristi Noem of South Dakota, Kim Reynolds of Iowa, Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, and Glenn Youngkin of Virginia are all governors of their states who could try to build their names nationally.
It’s still unclear if Trump critics like Liz Cheney, a former congresswoman from Wyoming, and Larry Hogan, a former governor of Maryland, will run against him. Few people think a candidate like this will win the primary. Voters are more likely to choose between different versions of “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), with culture warrior DeSantis trying to show that he is a younger, more energetic version of the brand than Trump.
“It will be very interesting to see how Maga Nikki Haley does in the primary,” said Drexel Heard, a Democratic strategist. I think Nikki Haley is smart, but she’ll have to go full Maga to get through this primary because she’s running against someone like Ron DeSantis, who is already putting out red meat.
Trump stands to gain from a split field, just like he did in 2016. His supporters are very loyal to him. In South Carolina, he has already won the support of Governor Henry McMaster and Senator Lindsey Graham, giving him an advantage over Haley and Scott. But even though Trump is trying to run a normal campaign so far, there are important differences from seven years ago.
Whalen, who used to be a consultant in California and is now a research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution in Palo Alto, said, “First, there are legal issues. Some are more serious than others, but if you’re running for president and you take the fifth 400 times, it doesn’t look good.
Second, he now has a record that he didn’t have before. In 2015 and 2016, Donald Trump was just a thought, a blank slate when it came to running for office. Now he has to talk about his four years in office. He’s not a made-up person; he’s someone who has held the job before. Voters have to decide if they want him back in office. Third, there wasn’t anyone like Ron DeSantis in 2016.
No one was quite in the same position as DeSantis in terms of being able to do three things at once: make money, point to a very successful record in his state, and play the game that Trump plays. Because of this, DeSantis gives Republicans a choice they didn’t have in 2016. In 2024, there might be someone who could use fire to fight fire.
DeSantis is a choice that Republicans didn’t have in 2016. In 2024, there is someone who could put out a fire with another fire.
Bill Whalen
Others agree that, despite a slow start in Iowa, the Republican primary is shaping up to be a lot more competitive than anyone thought it would be a year ago. The party was willing to overlook many of Trump’s lies and wrongdoings, but not how badly his handpicked candidates did in the midterm elections last November. The self-proclaimed winner has been losing over and over again, as his fundraising numbers have been pretty bad so far.
Larry Jacobs, who runs the University of Minnesota’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, said, “I’m not seeing a lot of Trump fear. I think there has been a pretty wide agreement among Republicans that Trump is weak and can be beaten. Also, the coming charges against him may make him even weaker. What’s happening now just shows me that Trump’s grip on the Republican party is getting weaker. It seems pretty open to me. Trump is a favorite, but he has some very serious problems with his long-term viability in a field that is clearly no longer afraid of him. The GOP is sick of losing.”
